Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 214.521655 258.304035 311.660215 382.438748 475.352104 595.328671 7.656431e+02
2025-08-24 157.637356 206.285804 272.628203 372.730037 525.635521 760.882451 1.173613e+03
2025-08-31 125.551098 173.742488 244.746326 362.319081 563.917146 921.671928 1.679161e+03
2025-09-07 113.386790 165.042472 246.775201 394.728666 679.677014 1268.615452 2.820409e+03
2025-09-14 99.496837 150.208934 234.762257 398.538657 744.376695 1556.661614 4.171300e+03
2025-09-21 90.290571 140.870103 229.336019 411.941542 833.748069 1963.552169 6.515893e+03
2025-09-28 80.948066 129.543733 217.777828 409.415440 886.212125 2317.850308 9.460887e+03
2025-10-05 77.666497 128.211275 224.326647 446.986792 1057.639696 3205.574224 1.812475e+04
2025-10-12 73.981954 125.461298 227.409091 477.706604 1229.660955 4326.722550 3.581385e+04
2025-10-19 70.015067 121.518342 227.182003 500.379986 1393.147915 5686.884140 7.353250e+04
2025-10-26 65.810262 116.479845 223.614946 513.382435 1534.677164 7230.871900 1.566327e+05
2025-11-02 61.500915 110.646861 217.230631 516.846016 1645.613563 8874.561994 3.478626e+05
2025-11-09 56.554279 103.120600 206.247900 505.672205 1700.180642 10370.247604 7.971037e+05
2025-11-16 52.048217 96.031827 195.264703 491.864737 1738.921864 11950.727591 2.127179e+06
2025-11-23 48.042760 89.570597 184.819423 477.024588 1766.163765 13618.461187 7.333979e+06
2025-11-30 47.381650 90.312446 192.307425 523.435740 2150.751084 21960.071729 2.577700e+12
2025-12-07 44.925061 86.744709 188.185561 528.920224 2319.856359 28730.643081 NaN
2025-12-14 43.234426 84.729170 187.828631 548.255281 2603.099111 41621.370971 NaN
2025-12-21 40.855551 80.858797 181.856767 544.605862 2732.855991 53045.516860 NaN
2025-12-28 40.576600 81.913275 189.723288 599.137374 3385.808804 105104.944350 NaN
2026-01-04 39.892983 81.907994 194.600997 644.114247 4064.520991 212133.009153 NaN
2026-01-11 38.873779 80.956899 196.539676 677.526896 4723.203842 433851.880707 NaN
2026-01-18 37.553102 79.105800 195.445444 696.768809 5290.514372 874733.518628 NaN